Real estate listings are drying up, open houses have been cancelled, and buyers are staying home. One more pillar of the Canadian economy is under threat from the coronavirus pandemic.

What was a roaring start to the spring house-hunting season has ended in a whimper. By the time the dust settles on what's likely to be months of disruption, Canada could see resales plunge 30 per cent to a 20-year low and the first nationwide drop in prices since 2009, according to Royal Bank of Canada.

"This is freezing the market," John Pasalis, president of Toronto property brokerage Realosophy Realty, said in a phone interview. "The best-case scenario is we see an improvement in activity in the fall. I don't think anyone's really expecting anything before that."

Real estate, along with residential building construction, accounted for almost 15 per cent of Canada's output last year, ahead of energy at about 9 per cent. It has been a key driver of growth in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal, where an influx of immigrants has fed a boom in activity in everything from architecture and design to insurance and lending.

The buoyant market has also been central to the massive wealth effect that has been driving consumption in recent years. The value of real estate assets owned by households has risen by $2.5 trillion (US$1.8 trillion) over the past decade, an increase of 80 per cent.

Now it's just another casualty of mandated shutdowns to fight the spread of a virus that has infected more than 9,000 in Canada and led to 105 deaths. While construction has still been allowed to operate in Ontario and British Columbia, it's all but shut down in Quebec.

'No Buyers Are Out'

It's a big change from early March when markets were soaring. In Toronto, sales rose about 50 per cent in the first two weeks from a year ago, and prices were surging, according to Pasalis. By last week, sales were down 37 per cent and new listings were cut by a third in Toronto, he said.

Figures from city real estate boards are expected to show the market fading through March. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver said Thursday average daily sales fell to 93 in the last ten business days of the month from 138 in the first ten. But sales were still up 46 per cent in the month and prices rose 2.1 per cent over the year. Calgary, also pummelled by the oil price slump, saw sales drop 11 per cent in March from the same month last year to lowest since 1995.

In Vancouver, some sellers haven't caught up with reality, says Ian Watt, who specializes in condos at Sutton Group West Coast Realty.

"We're still seeing a dozen listings a day in the downtown core, it's ridiculous," he says. "Why would anyone do it? No buyers are out, period."

Robert Hogue, senior economist at Royal Bank, said the pandemic will be a "tough but temporary blow" to Canada's housing market. He sees a recovery coming in stages as buyers take as much as a year to regroup and rebuild confidence amid high unemployment. That means home resales will dive to 350,000 units, he said. Prices will fall briefly over the second half by an average of 2.9 per cent from the year before.